Not even a week into lockdown and people are going stir crazy wondering when their social distancing will end.
It could be weeks before we know. Scientists need to identify when we reach “peak cases” to determine the pandemic’s trajectory. It took China about two and a half months to reach its peak. It took South Korea about half a month.
Unfortunately, U.S. scientists are behind the curve due to a late start in testing. But as the numbers come in, experts offer their thoughts on when we might recover from both the virus and the volatility.
Estimating an end to the pandemic
Source: The Lancet
- There are four ways this pandemic ends: it peters out, it infects everybody, we find a vaccine, or we manage the disease. (Daily Beast)
- A government report warns the pandemic could last 18 months with widespread shortages. (N.Y. Times, Newsweek)
- There may be waves of the virus that either occur in one 6- to 12-month period, or that spread over several years, says a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist. (Washington Post)
- Hopefully, we reach peak cases in the U.S. in late April or early May. (U.S.A. Today)
- The virus could be over by June, say Chinese epidemiologists. (Reuters)
- Will warm weather kill the bug? Probably not, says a Harvard epidemiologist. (Center for Communicable Disease Dynamics)
- If containment doesn’t work, the only way to get the pandemic under control is if it infects 50% of the population. (Vox)
- Keeping our social distance may be the new normal. (Washington Post)
- How fast hospital beds will fill up if the rate of infection is left unchecked. (ProPublica)
Estimating an end to market volatility
- Morningstar forecasts a short-term hit with a quick rebound. (Morningstar)
- Mark Hulbert thinks it will take about three years to return to the February 19, 2020 highs. (MarketWatch)
Source: Yahoo Finance
#QuarantineLife: How to keep busy in isolation
- Arnold is self-isolating with his best buds.
Source: Ben Carlson
- Selling real estate in a pandemic.
Source: Next Door
- Another expert’s best guess on how this all ends…