Build Your Own Recession Forecasting System

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The recent past can provide a surprising amount of strategic economic intelligence if you know where to look. Here's a roundup of resources that can help you forecast where the economy is headed with a surprising degree of accuracy.

A Better Way to Forecast Market Returns

Economists are finding that combining factors—like dividend yield and the yield curve—generates more reliable clues for projecting the equity risk premium for medium- and long-term horizons. But what may be even more significant is the evidence that links these clues to the business cycle.

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Autoregression-based predictions can help squeeze better forecasts out of history.

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Consider carefully how you use projections in building your clients' financial plans. Complicated analytics may seem beneficial, but there is a lot of wisdom in simple metrics like "target rate of return."