A Better Way to Estimate Expected Return

RELATED CONTENT

Expected Returns: How to Harvest Market Rewards

A remarkable new book collects, condenses, and evaluates the key revelations of modern investment theory and practice to demonstrate how to estimate asset class returns.

A Better Way to Forecast Market Returns

Economists are finding that combining factors—like dividend yield and the yield curve—generates more reliable clues for projecting the equity risk premium for medium- and long-term horizons. But what may be even more significant is the evidence that links these clues to the business cycle.

Investor Sentiment and Stock Prices: Explaining the Ups and Downs

Investor "mood" is fickle, and its impact on the markets has traditionally been uncertain. New research attempts to take away some of the mystery.

How Mediocre Returns Can Be Worse Than Black Swans

Clients generally recover from sudden, short-term market drops (i.e., black swans). What they don't recover from are extended periods of mediocre returns—especially in a distribution portfolio. Are we focused on the wrong risks?